How the Fuel Price Predictor works
One question, answered each week for up to 3 stations you pick: is the next price change more likely up or down, and how sure are we?
What the weekly email looks like
Friday, 7:30am
Your Fuel Price Predictor: petrol near SW1A
Most stations nationally raised prices yesterday. Here's what that means for yours.
High Street Service Station · 176.9p
Next move: likely UP · High confidence (84%) · likely to change within 3 days
Fill up now if you can. A typical rise like this is about 2p a litre, £1.20 on a 60-litre tank.
Ring Road Supermarket · 172.9p
Next move: likely DOWN · Medium confidence (66%) · could change in the next few days
Wait if you can. Stations near it have cut since it last changed its price.
Supermarket sites often price nationally, so they are harder to predict.
Station Road Garage · 178.9p
Next move: no clear call · prices look balanced · may hold for now
Last week's calls: 2 of 3 came true; the third station hasn't changed its price yet.
Our track record over the last 30 days, compared with simply assuming prices keep going the way they went last week.
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Station names and figures above are made up to show the layout.
Where the call comes from
UK forecourts tend to change prices in waves. When wholesale fuel costs move, a few stations react, then more follow over the next days. So we start from the most recent wave: which way did the latest price changes across thousands of UK stations go?
Then we look at your station: has it changed its price since its neighbours did? How long since it last moved, compared with its usual rhythm? How far has wholesale fuel moved since then? Those don't change the direction of the wave, but they tell us how confident to be at your station.
What the confidence figure means
- High (75% or more): we only use this label where calls like it should come true at least three times in four.
- Medium (60–75%): more likely than not, but expect misses.
- No clear call (under 60%): we say so rather than guess. This happens when the market is split, or when your station's own signals point the other way from the wave.
We check every call against what the station actually did next, and adjust the figures so they stay honest. A miss usually means the station didn't move yet, rather than moving the other way.
Timing
Alongside the direction we tell you whether a change looks likely within 3 days, could change in the next few days, or may hold for now. It's a rough guide; stations that haven't changed their price for weeks are especially hard to time.
What we won't claim
These are estimates from past price patterns, not guarantees. Geopolitics, a supermarket price war or a local promotion can move prices in ways no model sees coming. From launch we'll publish our track record here, including the misses, next to the simple rule of assuming prices carry on the way they went last week, so you can judge whether we add anything.
Weekly on Fridays, plus an alert when a call changes. Never more than 3 emails a week.